Will Diesel Run Out?
Will Diesel Run Out?
Tim O’Connor – Center for the Preservation of Humanity – 10/31/2022
I have never taken a course in economics. It is possible that due to my non-existent official education in the subject the basics come very east to me. Let’s say there are 50,000 people looking to buy an item which there are only 500. I can charge, basically, whatever I want. If the number of the product goes up, and I have competitors, I am going to want to look at what competitors are charging and adjust my price accordingly. It my competitors are charging $100 for the item and my product isn’t quite as good, I may choose to charge $90, if my version is superior I may charge $125. Low supply and high demand drive prices higher – high supply and low to medium demand will drive prices lower. It really is that simple.
The same applies to oil and the products created from it. There are a lot of other factors involved as well, however, when there is less oil there will be less diesel fuel and the demand stays, more or less, constant. The prices are going to rise for the fuel. They already have. October 24, 2022 saw diesel prices at $5.341 a gallon. A year ago the price was $3.713 a gallon and two years ago it was $2.385 a gallon. Why is this? Because the supply of oil has become more volatile and thousands of pipelines and wells are sitting idle. Less oil being pumped out of the ground means less material to refine (if it can get to the refinery at all) which means less product being produced from it.
In the case of oil, all kinds of things are made from the black liquid. Gasoline (petrol), diesel, and jet fuel are perhaps the most important. Heating fuels are derived from oil. Plastics used in all manners of things – food packaging, car parts, DVD’s, and sports balls, for example – all require oil to be made in today’s world. Even our toothpaste is made using oil. A huge number of medical drugs and devices, beauty products, and paints use oil. All of these industries and many more, including gas stations, rely on access to cheap oil and cheap oil refinery products in order to keep costs low. Basically, if oil prices rise, everything will end up costing more – even if the product itself is not made using petroleum products.
Where does our food come from? It comes from a farm. Meat comes from an animal and is slaughtered, usually at a slaughterhouse. Fruits, vegetables, and grains are grown, usually on a farm, and are harvested from a plant, tree, shrub, or bush. Agriculture means moving a lot of things around on the farm – fertilizer (an oil product itself – see the Haber process for more details), seeds, hay, animal feed are some of these. All of that requires diesel – it’s what tractors used by millions of farmers around the world use to plow the field and reap the yields. To get animals from a farm to the slaughterhouse they are loaded into diesel-powered semi-truck trailers and transported for slaughter. Grain, fruit, milk, eggs, and vegetables are moved by diesel trucks to the processing plant. After the foods are processed (in the case of meat – slaughtered and processed) they are packaged and then shipped by diesel trucks once more – either to a warehouse or directly to a store shelf. If it goes to a warehouse it will be moved by diesel truck yet again. Most of us see our food on the shelves or served through a window or by a server and don’t think twice about it. We only start thinking about it when the prices go up, the quality is not up to par, the food actually makes us sick, or the amount of food we get for the same price goes down.
Turning the oil spigots off is not a good idea for humanity to survive at this point in time. Running out of diesel fuel would be just as catastrophic. Not only would food production be negatively affected, the price of food would rise precipitously, the cost of all consumer goods would rise, and the supply will be lower driving costs even higher. It could have a severe ripple effect especially for small and medium sized farmers. The mega-farms and the land-owning psychopaths who dream up ways to lower the population with their time (looking directly at Bill Gates and China here) have plenty of cash to buy additional land. That does not mean they will necessarily use it to produce more food. As the operating costs for farming go higher, the smaller farms will be squeezed out of the market. The result will be less food overall, a less diverse food supply overall, and humanity-hating corporations and individuals creating an even more tightly controlled oligarchy over farming in the United States. But this is not just a problem in the United States – it is a global problem.
On October 30, 2022 The Hill published “Seriously low diesel supply threatens to worsen inflation.” The author, Rachel Frazen, falsely attributes the low diesel supply in the US to Russia invading Ukraine, the uptick in oil usage as we enter the ‘post-pandemic’ era, Chinese export quotas, and (mysteriously coincidental) loss of refinery capacity. While all of these are issues, the one solution to this shortage is the one option not on the table because Joe Biden hates America and the Americans that live in it. That option is to drill baby, drill. We could return to energy independence if we chose to. Instead we have monsters in ‘official’ capacities pointing their fingers all over the place but refusing to acknowledge the sole solution, mentioned above. The article reads, in part:
“Analysts say that this crunch is expected to worsen persistently high inflation not seen in the last four decades. High diesel prices may drive up shipping and heating costs.
““The rising costs of diesel fuel therefore impacts everybody, as diesel prices affect direct manufacturing, transportation and heating costs. As diesel prices rise, so do the costs of goods which in general are passed onto consumers,” said Suzanne Danforth, an analyst with Wood Mackenzie, in a written statement to The Hill.
“Danforth added that this could also help push the country into recession, as rising prices could curb demand for products.
““Higher diesel prices have the potential to create even stronger inflationary pressures especially if the current price spike is sustained, adding significant downside risk to demand and increasing the chances of a global recession,” she said.
“However, she also noted that if the economy slows, that could also help bring diesel prices down.
“But the impacts of heating costs may not impact Americans evenly. Heating oil is most commonly used in the Northeast, and that region may be hit hardest by large utility bills.”
Their solution is to slow the economy down. Now, I happened to have my rent (an apartment and a garage unit) increase by $34 a month. The rise takes effect December 1 for me. That is only a 5% increase so, compared to many others, I suppose I am lucky. The thing is, I will have to radically alter my life in order to afford the increase. Millions of others are in the same boat I am in. Slowing the economy down means that people will lose their jobs and make no money. It means that certain goods will no longer be obtainable because they are no longer being produced. Danforth’s only suggested solution included in this piece is to slow the economy down. I guess the increased rates of poverty, homelessness, suicide, drug usage, drug overdose, mental illness, physical illness, and a general lack of opportunity to thrive to pull out of these states are not a concern to Danforth because then the diesel prices will decrease.
There are more proposed solutions, all completely asinine, contained in the article, too:
“The Biden administration for its part has sought to put pressure on industry to increase the supply of diesel.
“In a recent interview with Bloomberg, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese called the inventory levels “unacceptably low” and called on industry to build up its inventory.
“Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm called on industry to cut back its exports of “refined products” which include diesel and gasoline, in recent weeks, arguing that the supply is needed stateside.
“The industry, however, has pushed back, arguing that exports are important for maintaining global supplies, especially amid disruptions caused by the conflict in Ukraine.
““Reducing global supply by limiting U.S. exports to build region-specific inventory will only aggravate the global supply shortfall,” ExxonMobil’s CEO reportedly wrote to the Biden administration last month.
Biden, the one who shut the US spigot off because it’s all about the UN-directed SDGs in his demonic regime, is credited, incorrectly, for trying to alleviate the situation. Deese apparently forgot that in order to make more diesel fuel, there needs to be more oil and, being as though the supply of oil is not increasing, but decreasing, the equation will never equal more diesel fuel. Granholm wants to exacerbate an already very tense and energy starved geopolitical situation between the United States and the rest of the world which increasingly detests the United States. While the situation in the United States is dire and, perhaps an immediate remedy, at least in the US, is to keep the diesel here, it is not a sustainable remedy. The sustainable remedy is to restart domestic oil production in the US and keep supplying global markets with oil products – taming geopolitical tensions as well as bolstering the US economy. Not suggesting this solution portends ill will towards global peace, the US economy, and humanity’s survival on this planet in general.
The article closes:
“Overall, Chowdhury [head of North and Latin American refining and marketing research at S&P Global Commodity Insights] said, there’s limited options to fix the problem.
““This is a difficult crisis to get out of,” he said.”
But it is not a difficult problem to get out of. The only reason it is difficult is because we are not allowed to solve it. We are not permitted to solve it because we, honestly, are not even allowed to define the problem’s origin. The origins of this problem began with the Covid-19 lock-downs, mandates, and remdesivir-and-ventilator-equipped doctor-assisted murders. The problem was made acute on January 27, 2001. That was that day that even scumbags at CNBC used the title, “Biden suspends oil and gas leasing in slew of executive actions on climate change.” The entire article fails to mention the implications of Biden’s depopulation agenda – implications which are becoming more grave daily. Instead the CNBC article promotes and congratulates Biden’s acquiescence to the UN’s SDGs which are designed to destroy the lives, both financially and physically, of huge numbers of the denizens of the planet through climate change mitigation efforts. While the article does not spell out the implications, they are suggested, “Biden’s climate plan includes goals to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, cut emissions from electric power to zero by 2035 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.”
The looming diesel shortage is not an accident. It isn’t because of Russia and Ukraine going to war. It isn’t because of anything China is doing. It isn’t because of refinery problems. It isn’t because we are returning to work after the pandemic. It is because the Biden regime doesn’t care that alternatives to so-called fossil fuels simply do not exist on the scale they must in order for people to continue living their lives. The transition away from fossil fuels will continue despite causing a lack of fuel for agricultural, manufacturing, heating, and transportation. In spite of the Biden regime’s continued demand for petroleum shortages to reduce carbon in the atmosphere, the demand has not dissipated. Solar panels and new-age windmills do not have the capacity to provide electricity to the nation. There is not enough lithium to create car batteries for the people of the United States.
Biden’s responses have been utterly disgusting as well as creating additional national security concerns. His regime’s geopolitical position is, apparently, go to war with Russia and go to war with China, possibly simultaneously. The policy is asinine to begin with. It is even more asinine because, since Biden took office he has depleted it’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) from 640 million barrels of oil to 450 million barrels. To put that in perspective, 450 million barrels of oil would power the US economy (at 19 million barrels a day) for less than 24 days. 24 DAYS!!! The SPR is actually even lower than that because the 450 million barrels of oil figure was reported on September 7, 2022 – On October 21, 2022 the level stood at 401.72 million barrels. By that metric we have enough oil reserves to survive for slightly more than 21 days. Of course, the reserves only matter if they still exist. This also supposes that there is no oil production which is available in the United States. But, let me pose a question – what do tanks and transport planes and supply trucks run on in the military? The depletion is a national security risk.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US produced 5.013 million barrels of distillate (or diesel fuels) a day on average for the prior four weeks as recorded on October 21, 2022. The same source reports that the four week average usage, recorded on the same date, was 4.106 million barrels of diesel a day. In 2014 the US Environmental Protection Agency mandated that almost all diesel engines use what is called ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) meaning the distillate can only contain 15 parts per million of sulfur for all road, non-road, marine, and locomotive vehicle fuels. Daily US production of ultra low sulfur diesel over the four weeks prior to October 21, 2022, according to the EIA was 4.815 million barrels. The four week averages for imports of distillates is 0.102 million barrels and exports is 1.295 million barrels a day (both recorded on October 21, 2022). The US could stop exporting diesel which would force other nations to scramble to find alternative sources of diesel and, as stated before, create even more fragile and unstable geopolitical situations. Or we could start drilling, today, right now.
The US has tens, if not hundreds, of billions of barrels of oil in the ground. IF we want to fix the problem, we would immediately begin drilling this oil out of the ground, refining it, and shoring up gaps between domestic production and demand. The US could begin exporting even more diesel (and other petroleum products) to shore up gaps in global production and demands. But man-made climate change adherents around the world demand that the US and all other oil-producing nations stop producing any oil at all. The ecoterrorists are winning on this warfront for the time being. All we need to do is watch the prices for a gallon of gas to see which side is winning the latest battle in this war.
Another, partial, solution would be to sit Putin and Zelensky down at a table with a responsible mediator and force them to make peace. The peace would need to be lasting and satisfy the major desires of not only NATO and Ukraine, but also of Russia. Part of that deal needs to include turning Russian gas back on (if that is possible any longer since neither Nordstream pipeline exists any more) so that Europe will no longer been in jeopardy of freezing to death this winter.
A Russian/Ukrainian peace would help to alleviate the global oil issue for the near term. For the long term – recognizing the fact that humanity is reliant upon oil and the products produced by it – it can not be magically wished away. We could replace it with other technologies; however, those technologies would need to be proven to accomplish all of the functions oil provides with the same capacity as oil. The proposal is to stop trying to get rid of carbon.
At the end of the day we (you and me and 8 billion others) are the carbon these people are trying to eradicate. The diesel shortage is a man-made creation that should not, nor needs to, exist, especially in the US, but also, globally.
Will US diesel run out? I do believe it will. Unless the ecoterrorist’s climate mitigation plans are shelved and we start drilling and manage to get rid of Russian sanctions, I do believe diesel will run out as early as in the next three weeks. About two weeks ago is was reported that we have only 25 days of diesel left in the US. The same 25 days is still being reported by The Hill for example. With demand rising and supply remaining flat, it cannot still be 25 days. According to the statistics above the US is losing about 484,000 barrels of diesel a day. This number will grow if nothing but demand changes. For every barrel of oil up to 12 gallons of ULSD can be produced. According to the EIA there were 95.4 million barrels of stocked ULSD. My calculation reveal that in actuality there are just under 8 million barrels of ULSD in these reserves. That puts the estimate of the number of days of diesel left at 16 days. Are you ready for that?
God will protect us. That protection depends upon our desire to trust God. It is written about throughout the Bible. Isaiah 41, 2 Thessalonians 3, Deuteronomy 31, Daniel 12, 1 John 5, and Luke 12 Exodus 14 and many other passages provide examples of God’s protection. We need to understand the Bible, repent of our sins, Love our Messiah and patiently await His return, and worship God because He is holy. Do this and be written in the Book of Life – live as the Messiah and follow the Laws of God – be holy. The diesel running out means we will be forced to be more self-reliant. If we are favorable to God, we will not be destroyed.
Bless God and God bless.
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